MODELING FUTURE URBAN GROWTH AND GREEN INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION IN ILORIN METROPOLIS USING INTEGRATED CA–MARKOV AND GIS APPROACHES

Abstract

Rapid urbanization in sub-saharan Africa has led to profound land use and land cover (LULC) changes, posing significant challenges for environmental sustainability and urban resilience. This study investigates historical and projected LULC dynamics in Ilorin Metropolis, Nigeria, from 1990 to 2020, with projections for 2030 and 2040, emphasizing the integration of green infrastructure (GI) in urban land use. Multi-temporal satellite imagery classified through remote sensing and GIS methods quantified LULC changes, while a hybrid Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model simulated future scenarios incorporating GI principles. Results showed a sharp increase in built-up areas from 7.78% (1990) to 39.64% (2020), primarily encroaching on vegetation and bare lands. Vegetation declined initially but exhibited partial recovery due to reforestation and GI initiatives. The CA-Markov model's accuracy (kappa > 0.8) supports its application for planning transitions toward sustainable urban development. The findings highlight the urgent need to integrate GI elements such as urban green spaces, ecological corridors, and permeable surfaces into land use planning to mitigate environmental degradation, enhance ecosystem services, and improve urban livability in Ilorin and similar rapidly urbanizing African cities