IMPACT OF NON-OIL EXPORTS ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Non-Oil Exports, Economic Growth and NigeriaAbstract
Nigeria is experiencing slow economic growth despite abundant non-oil export goods. This study investigated the impact of non-oil export goods on economic growth in Nigeria from 1986-2025. Economic growth was used as the dependent variable while the components of non-oil-exports (agricultural, manufacturing, solid mineral, and services exports) were employed as independent variables. Interest rate, inflation rate and exchange rate were used as control variables. Data were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Development Indicators (WDI). The study utilized ex post facto quantitative research design. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Pearons (PP) unit root tests were conducted and the results showed mixed-order of integration. The estimated Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) results showed that agricultural exports (AGEX) impacted positively (1.102805) on economic growth in Nigeria but negatively (-0.9561084) and statistically significant in the long-run. Manufacturing exports (MAEX) had a negative (-1.0308925) and statistically significant impact on economic growth and likewise a negative (-0.921084) but statistically insignificant impact on economic growth. Solid mineral exports (SMEX) had a negative (-18.74305) and statistically significant impact on economic growth but in the long-run it had negative (-3.870174) and statistically insignificant impact on economic growth. Services exports (SREX) both in the short-run and long-run impacted positively (2.736900) and (1.870174) on economic growth in Nigeria and statistically significant. Also, interest rate had negative (-31.31944) and (-25.38179) and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria respectively. More so, exchange rate had both positive (3.038912) and (2.322815) and statistically significant impact on economic growth in Nigeria. It was concluded that the non-oil exports (agricultural exports and services exports had statistically significant positive impact on economic growth in Nigeria except manufacturing and solid mineral exports. The study recommended that the statistically significant positive impact of agricultural exports and services exports on economic growth in Nigeria should be improved upon, strengthen and sustained by the Nigerian government especially by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, Federal Ministry of Trade and Investment, Bank of Agriculture and the Central Bank of Nigeria. Also, the statistically significant negative impact of manufacturing exports and solid mineral exports on economic growth in Nigeria should be addressed through government improved expenditure on the subsectors. This can be achieved through supporting government policies and programmes and ensuring increase in budget allocation to manufacturing and mining sectors.
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