GOVERNMENT AGRICULTURAL EXPENDITURE ON CROP PRODUCTION ANDPOVERTY RATE IN NIGERIA
Keywords:
Government Agricultural Expenditure, Crop Production, Poverty Rate, NigeriaAbstract
The rate of increase in poverty in Nigeria is alarming despite increase in government agricultural expenditure on crop production. This study determined the impact of government agricultural expenditure on crop production on poverty rate in Nigeria from 1986-2025. Poverty rate was used as the dependent variable while government agricultural expenditure on crop production was utilized as an independent variable. The control variables employed were inflation rate and exchange rate. Data were collated from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), and World Development Indicators (WDI). The study used ex post facto quantitative research design. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test was conducted and the result showed mixed-order of integration and hence Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used in the estimation of the data. The estimated ARDL model results showed that government agricultural expenditure on crop production (GEC) had a negative (-0.159714) and statistically significant impact on poverty rate in the short-run but a positive (0.135784) and statistically insignificant impact on poverty rate in the long-run. Inflation rate (INFL) impacted negatively (-0.138679) on poverty rate in the short-run although statistically insignificant and likewise in the long-run it had a negative (-0.187354) and statistically insignificant impact on unemployment. The results showed that exchange rate (EXCR) had a positive (0.176755) and statistically significant impact on poverty rate in the short-run but a negative (-0.012573) and statistically insignificant impact on poverty rate in the long-run. The study recommended that the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and the National assembly should revise the agricultural investment framework to increase budget allocation and funding of crop production in order to enhance poverty reduction in Nigeria.
References
Akpan, S. B., Udoh, E. J., Essien, U. A., & Ukoha, O. O. (2021). Empirical analysis of agricultural productivity growth in sub-Saharan Africa: 1961-2003. Tropical and Subtropical Agroecosystems, 15(3), 993-999.
Alabi, U., & Abu, N. (2020). Impact of agricultural public expenditure on livestock productivity and poverty rate in Nigeria. Business and Economic Journal, 4(1) 78-83.
Apata, T. (2021). Effect of government expenditure on crop production and poverty rate in agro-ecological regions in Nigeria. Revista Galega de Economía, 30(2), 1-21.
Aregbeyeni, O., & Kolawole, B. O. (2022). Oil revenue, public spending and economic growth relationship in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development, 8(3), 114-123.
Asghar, N., & Salman, A. (2018). Government expenditure on crop production and food security on poverty in Pakistan. Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 12(3), 851-864.
Attahiru, B. A. (2016). Dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output and unemployment in Nigeria: An econometric investigation. Journal of Applied Statistics, 7(2), s87-112.
Bak, C. K., & Larsen, J. E. (2020). Social exclusion or poverty individualisation. An empirical test of two recent and competing poverty theories. European Journal of Social Work 18(1), 14-21.
Central Bank of Nigeria (2023). Central Bank of Nigeria Annual Statistical Bulletin. Central Bank of Nigeria, Abuja-Nigeria.
Chandio, A. A., Y. Jiang, F. Wei & Guashun, X. (2018). Effect of government expenditure on wheat production on poverty reduction in Sandh, Pakistan. Emerald Insight, 6(3), 245-458.
Dahmardeh, N., & Tabar, M.H. (2019). Government expenditures and its impact on poverty reduction in Sistan and Baluchestan Province of Iran, International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 2(1), 251-260.
Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time Series with a unit root. Econometrica, 4(2), 1057-1072.
Falaye, A. E. (2023). Government agricultural financing on crop production nexus in Nigeria. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(20), 45–52.
Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO, 2020). Food and agriculture organization Rome, Italy. Available at: http://www.fao.org/faostat /en/#data/QC
International Monetary Fund, (IMF, 2021). Unproductive public expenditures: A pragmatic approach to policy Analysis. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org
Jahan, S., Mahmud, A. S., & Papageorgious, C. (2020). What is Keynesian economics? Finance and Development, 5(3), 53-54.
Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Paperbound ed.
Nugroho, P. E. (2019). Government expenditure, agricultural productivity, and poverty reduction in Indonesia: A simultaneous equations approach. Journal of the Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, (34), 39-54
Okpe, A. E., Abu.O., Odoemenemm, U. I., & Asogwu, B. C. (2018). Effect of government expenditure on rice production and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Agricultural Research and Technology. Open Journal, 16(5), 45-49.
Osabohien, R., Adeleye, N. & De Alwis, T. (2020). Impact of government agro-financing on food production and poverty reduction in Nigeria. Doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e04001
Oyibo, O., Zakari, A., & Rekwot, G. Z. (2021). Agricultural budgetary allocation and World Poverty Clock (2019). 91.8 million Nigerians are extremely poor. Retrieved November 19, 2019 from www.worldpovertyclock.io.
ISSN 3121-9519 BOJEDS Maiden Edition; Url: https://journals.plasu.edu.ng/; E-mail: bojeds@plasu.edu.ng Vol. 1 [1] June, 2026
Roser, M. & Ortiz-ospina, E., (2017). Government spending, our world in data. Retrieved December 10, 2019 ourworldindata.org/government- spending.
Schoch, M. (2022). Poverty headcount ratio at $2.15 a day (2017 PPP) (% of population), World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.DDAY
Ukpong, U. M., Uduak, A., Ekere, S. A., & Akpan, E. O. (2022). Government expenditure and agricultural sector output in Nigeria. American Journal of Arts and Human Science, 1(4), 20-26.
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2020). Human development report. Oxford University Press, New York.
World Bank (2019). New country classifications-income level 2018-2019. Retrieved November 14, 2019 from https//worldbank.org/opendata/newcountry-classification-income-level-2018-2019. World Bank (2021). Regional aggregation using 2011 PPP and $1.9/day poverty line. Pascal Net. Retrieved January 25, 2021 from Iresearch.worldbank.org.
World Bank (2023). World development indicators. Retrieved on 12th October, 2023 from https//databank.worldbank.org.
Zakaree, S. S. (2020). Impact of Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) on domestic food supply in Nigeria. British Journal of Economics, and Management and Trade, 4(8), 1273-1284.
